[SeanK]

Wake up guys there is no decrease in crime, the powers that be just have a better way of hiding it from Joe public.
They do the same with the unemployment figures.
Its the same crap they use when saying people are living longer and most of the next generation will live to 100
This is the same generation that's killing themselves with binge drinking and junk food.
I know from talking to customers that crime has increased in my area by a fair amount.

[PoleKing]

Wake up guys there is no decrease in crime, the powers that be just have a better way of hiding it from Joe public.
They do the same with the unemployment figures.
Its the same crap they use when saying people are living longer and most of the next generation will live to 100
This is the same generation that's killing themselves with binge drinking and junk food.
I know from talking to customers that crime has increased in my area by a fair amount.

I don't really know Sean. But...the perception and the reality are vastly different in some areas.
There was a radio documentary on it last year.

[Perfect Windows]

The collecting criteria may have changed though.
In 30 years it will have, without a doubt.

Has it occurred to you that the changes (detailed in the graph) might make the decline look smaller than it is?  Not saying they do, just that it's entirely possible.  Your argument runs both ways.

Vin

Actually, no, it hadn't. I've not said whether  I think crime has gone up or down.
I'm just saying what is true.

And I'm just saying your argument runs both ways with one example out of two possible examples.

Vin

[Tom White]

I know from talking to customers that crime has increased in my area by a fair amount.

That may or may not be true (crime increasing in your area), but creating a whole picture of the UK from one small area of it will certainly be a distorted version of reality.

And one of the reasons for the fall in crime from it's high in 1995 could simply be that mobile phone theft is down due to better security systems on modern mobile phones.  Or that car theft is down for similar reasons.

I live in a close knit community and crime seems to be almost non existent around here, but I know I cannot compare here with some deprived inner city area.

[Perfect Windows]

I'm not inferring anything.
My only point is that a lot of figures can be massaged to show/hide what the originator would like to show.

The figures behind that graph come from the Crime Survey for England and Wales.  It's held up as being one of the most consistent and well carried out statistical surveys anywhere.

To address a point made by someone else, it is carried out by interviewing people at random and asking them, by their definition, if they have been a victim of crime.  This is then checked to see if what's been reported as a crime actually is.  So it doesn't matter if someone's cautioned, arrested or even caught - it's recorded.

Statistically, it's very robust indeed.  It's pretty much a shining light as far as good stats go.  And it shows crime decreasing.  Take a look at page 6 of www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_360216.pdf - graph updated to take in preliminary results from this year.

Vin

[Perfect Windows]

Search my name, I've been on here on and off for years!

OK, here goes: http://www.cleanitup.co.uk/smf/index.php?action=profile;u=37979;sa=showPosts

Vin

[SeanK]

I know from talking to customers that crime has increased in my area by a fair amount.

That may or may not be true (crime increasing in your area), but creating a whole picture of the UK from one small area of it will certainly be a distorted version of reality.

And one of the reasons for the fall in crime from it's high in 1995 could simply be that mobile phone theft is down due to better security systems on modern mobile phones.  Or that car theft is down for similar reasons.

I live in a close knit community and crime seems to be almost non existent around here, but I know I cannot compare here with some deprived inner city area.

Tosh I understand what your saying but I don't come from a deprived area. I come from an area that's fairly well off
with low unemployment, and until lately almost crime free.
So if crime is going up in my area why isn't it going up elsewhere ?
Nothing has changed in society to explain why crime would be coming down infect with prison sentences getting
shorter crime sounds more appealing.

[rosskesava]

The figures behind that graph come from the Crime Survey for England and Wales.  It's held up as being one of the most consistent and well carried out statistical surveys anywhere.

To address a point made by someone else, it is carried out by interviewing people at random and asking them, by their definition, if they have been a victim of crime.  This is then checked to see if what's been reported as a crime actually is.  So it doesn't matter if someone's cautioned, arrested or even caught - it's recorded.

Statistically, it's very robust indeed.  It's pretty much a shining light as far as good stats go.  And it shows crime decreasing.  Take a look at page 6 of www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_360216.pdf - graph updated to take in preliminary results from this year.

Vin

It may be the dogs wotsits as far a surveys go but like must always be compared with like. Who says it's a shining light for good stats and it doesn't show crime decreasing, it shows a statistic for crime decreasing.

This forum is not the place to go into exactly why those statistics are not valid.

Also, if crime is decreasing then why are there more people in prison than ever before despite a government ruling that less be sent to prison and despite a general reduction in length of sentence and a greater emphasis on community orders instead of custodial sentences?

[Tom White]

Also, if crime is decreasing then why are there more people in prison than ever before despite a government ruling that less be sent to prison and despite a general reduction in length of sentence and a greater emphasis on community orders instead of custodial sentences?

When was the government ruling?  That may answer your question.

[LT carpet cleaning]

You should be banned from the forum! You are a convicted class A drug dealer!

Why is everybody treating him with respect?

Oh clear off. No one is treating him with respect. He's BEEN an idiot. He has been punished. Rightly so. End of story. If he keeps his head down and contributes to society properly again, then I for one wish him nothing but the very best.

Also, what the hell does having two daughters have to do with anything.  

[rosskesava]

When was the government ruling?  That may answer your question.

Soon after they came to power.

Also, prison number have been steadily increasing for years despite the last governments efforts to do the same.

Prison numbers in one sense only are an easy statistic as it's a straight forwards head count.

[Tom White]

When was the government ruling?  That may answer your question.

Soon after they came to power.

Also, prison number have been steadily increasing for years despite the last governments efforts to do the same.

Prison numbers in one sense only are an easy statistic as it's a straight forwards head count.

Maybe the larger prison population helps accounts for some of the falling crime rate?

[Tony Edwards]

He ain't out is he, should of locked him up for years got no time for drug pushers/Dealers. 👹

+1

[rosskesava]

Maybe the larger prison population helps accounts for some of the falling crime rate?

Very valid point. I hadn't thought of that.

[Soupy]

Crime is dropping, it's a simple fact.

What's not dropping is people perception of crime, the fear that it will happen to them. According to the daily mail, Britain is full of knife wielding immigrants all fired up from playing grand theft auto.

We had a spate or robberies round here recently, everyone knew about every incident pretty much straight away. People report it to everyone they know on Facebook. Knowing straight away that someone you went to school with, who you haven't spoken to in ten years, and who lives two towns over, has had their bike nicked, immediately after it has happened is a new thing.

Information spreads so quickly nowadays. It's bound to make people think that crime is on the increase because they see more instances of it.

[8weekly]

He ain't out is he, should of locked him up for years got no time for drug pushers/Dealers. 👹

+1

It's a fact that people commit less crime on drugs than they do on alcohol. The overwhelming majority of crime in this country is alcohol fuelled. I think pub landlords should be locked up.

[gary999]

He ain't out is he, should of locked him up for years got no time for drug pushers/Dealers. 👹

+1

It's a fact that people commit less crime on drugs than they do on alcohol. The overwhelming majority of crime in this country is alcohol fuelled. I think pub landlords should be locked up.

You may or may not be right but that hardly makes drug pushing
better does it

[Perfect Windows]

It may be the dogs wotsits as far a surveys go but like must always be compared with like. Who says it's a shining light for good stats and it doesn't show crime decreasing, it shows a statistic for crime decreasing.

I literally cannot understand this comment.  You live in a different world from me if a well-run statistical survey can just be ignored.  The only solution to your problem with it is to ask every single person in Britain, otherwise it's "just statistics".  What would satisfy you?

This forum is not the place to go into exactly why those statistics are not valid.

Interesting.  You've already decided that they are not valid.  People a lot brighter than me (and, may I venture, you) are happy with it.  If this isn't the place to go into why it's not valid does that mean we're just meant to take your word for it?

Also, if crime is decreasing then why are there more people in prison than ever before despite a government ruling that less be sent to prison and despite a general reduction in length of sentence and a greater emphasis on community orders instead of custodial sentences?

Is it just possible that the number of people in prison and not on the street is the cause of the drop in crime?  Are you mistaking cause and effect?  Have you looked at the statistics (yes, that word again) about why the prison population is high.  I haven't, but have you, given that you're the one making the comment?

I don't know the answer to any of those any more than you do but what I do know, with enough certainty that I'd bet my house on it, is that the amount of crime in the UK is dropping.  Deride it by calling it "just statistics" (as though that's an insult) if you wish but those words are meaningless.  Once you have enough evidence, something becomes fact.  And this is way, way past enough evidence.  And it's not just one year of data, it's twenty years of steady decline.

Vin

[Perfect Windows]

Wake up guys there is no decrease in crime, the powers that be just have a better way of hiding it from Joe public.
They do the same with the unemployment figures.
Its the same crap they use when saying people are living longer and most of the next generation will live to 100
This is the same generation that's killing themselves with binge drinking and junk food.
I know from talking to customers that crime has increased in my area by a fair amount.

So, statistics are junk in general but your survey of a handful of people is relevant.

I despair.

Vin

[suffolkclean]

I don’t know richy wilts but I would just like to say I wish you all the very best and I hope you can get your life back together and stay clean and trouble free.

As for crime being  the result of weak sentencing and holidy camp prisons as is often the perception of the general public , in general this is not the case and most experts who have studied  this in countries all over the world talk about poverty and inequality being the main cause of crime.

A quick google search gave me this ;

“Contrary to the specific deterrent hypothesis, according to which harsher prison conditions should reduce recidivism, we do not find compelling evidence that higher degrees of prison harshness or isolation contribute to reducing the propensity to re-engage in criminal activities.”

http://aler.oxfordjournals.org/content/13/1/103.full

“More Dangerous Offenders Unaffected

There was one significant exception to the deterrent effect, the researchers found. Inmates convicted of more serious original crimes were not affected at all by the threat of longer sentence. In other words, the more dangerous inmates are not deterred by the threat of stiffer penalties.
Although the Italian study demonstrated that longer sentences can be a deterrent for some offenders, the findings only apply to those who have previously served time. It is still not clear if the deterrent effect is also true for those who have never been to prison.”

http://crime.about.com/od/prevent/a/deterrence.htm

“CONCLUSION
 
Existing evidence does not support any significant public safety benefit of the
practice of increasing the severity of sentences by imposing longer prison terms. In
fact, research findings imply that increasingly lengthy prison terms are
counterproductive. Overall, the evidence indicates that the deterrent effect of
lengthy prison sentences would not be substantially diminished if punishments were
reduced from their current levels. Thus, policies such as California’s Three Strikes
law or mandatory minimums that increase imprisonment not only burden state
budgets, but also fail to enhance public safety. As a result, such policies are not
justifiable based on their ability to deter.”

http://www.sentencingproject.org/doc/Deterrence%20Briefing%20.pdf


Seems to experts in many countries  after much research don’t agree that the threat of harsher penalties will necessarily reduce crime.

As for  statistics on crime falling/increasing , i think its a sad indictment of politicians and their lies and propaganda that people argue over the authenticity of  statistics no matter how true they may be.

Best wishes

Craig.