Neil, where did you get the info that google were scrapping natural listings?
Probably from one of the expert SEO companies that are out there that are all experts on how to get to the top of Google but all say different things.
The industry leaders in Search Engine Marketing can't agree on how Google's algorithms are calculated. This is the reason for Google's sucess. If you search for "carpet cleaner yourtown" most of the listings that come up are genuine sites for local carpet cleaners. If you search for "carpet cleaner yourtown" on MSN you struggle to find a carpet cleaner that is actualy in the town you searched. That's why people use Google to search the web.
The junk directories and spam sites can fool Google's system from time to time but they cant beat the system.
To suggest that Google are about to change their system and the founding principle that they were founded on is crazy speculation. Its the power of the market if they change there will be another new Google to take its place.
Its not that difficult to get to the first page of Google for carpet cleaning for your area. I do for most of my sites and the ones that dont will be soon as I am working on them. I do the same as Neil and have paid for Adwords and natural listings. It works well for me otherwise I wouldnt do it. I agree that natural listings can carry more weight with the viewing public but adwords fill the gaps and from the number of people that click through on them I am convinced they are worth the pennies that they cost me.
My advice to anyone that hasnt got a site is to get get one now as the competion is doing so and one of the things that people say Google look for is age of site. Also starting now you can build the links that link to you.
The other thing people always seem to forget when talking about SEO is page views and length of view. It is fact that Google track this. So if someone opens your site from finding it from a Google for a specific search term and then clicks back button straight after looking at the first page then it's obviously is a pants site and not what they were looking for. However if the look at a few of the pages for a bit of time then it was what they were looking for. So having a site that doesnt work in all browsers or like a few carpet cleaning sites that I have seen recently where its actually a struggle to understand what the company does or the site looks to American can cost you IMO. I think the sites that Mark does look like what a customer would be expecting to find.
Sorry for the waffle.